The Democratic candidates’ support bases

Github code here (dataset here) "Stop talking about left and moderate lanes" has become commonly accepted as a take, which is good.It doesn't surprise me that Warren, Harris, and Buttigieg were kind of going after the same educated progressive voters (Warrenites more liberal than the rest), and I do wonder how the race would have …

Turns out, the Liberals are holding steady

Github code here (dataset here) I've previously mused out loud whether the gradually decreasing vote shares for the Liberal Party reflected genuinely waning popularity among each segment of the Canadian electorate, or whether the anti-Liberal regions (the West) were gaining in population. The question about regions is easily answered. I've looked through Wikipedia's province-by-province vote shares going …

The Future of the Senate?

Github code here (dataset here) So what began with me wondering to myself just how screwed the Democrats are in the Senate in coming decades led to a prolonged bout of mapmaking, because of course it did. Increasingly, living in cities and having a college degree are predictors of voting Democratic. I've mapped out these …

Are Provincial Elections Second-Order?

An undergraduate paper for a "Public Opinion and Voting Behaviour" course. Late last month, Angela Merkel announced that she would not be running for re-election, either for party leadership or for Chancellor of Germany. Throughout her 13 years as Chancellor and 18 as party leader, Merkel had braved many a challenge – but following two …